- Even though the size of the expected buying flow at current prices is small, this shows that positioning risks for the yellow metal still remain skewed to the upside with a small margin of safety before price action catalyzes further buying flow from the largest cohort of money managers trading gold. The next significant purchase program, however, is located just north of the $1,815 threshold.
- As measured by the USD Index (DXY), the dollar fluctuates between gains and losses on Friday amid the general lack of direction in international markets.
- The US 10-year Treasury yields rebounded from their six-week low after the hawkish Fed speech and marked the biggest gap with their two-year counterpart since the 1980s, indicating the recession’s difficulties. Nevertheless, the recent decrease in Fed bets supporting a 50 basis point rate hike in December as well as the rise in betting supporting a 75 basis point move weighs on the price of gold.
EURUSD: The EURUSD fell during the American session to 1.0325 and then rose quickly back to the 1.0350 area, on a calm session across FX markets. The greenback spiked higher amid a deterioration in market sentiment that did not last much.
- US Dollar spikes and retreats during the American session, moving without clear direction.
- Overbought RSI, the key resistance zone tests the pair’s further upside.
- 200-DMA adds to the upside filters before directing buyers to late June’s top.
- September’s high, 100-DMA challenges the bearish bias, and 1.0280 appears immediate support.
USDJPY: USDJPY bulls struggle to keep the reins around the lowest levels since late August, despite positing the first daily gains in three around 139.15 during early Monday.
- USDJPY snaps a two-day downtrend but struggles to defend buyers around an 11-week low.
- 2.5-month-old horizontal area challenges buyers amid bearish MACD.
- Oversold RSI restricts immediate downside around 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
GBP/USD: The GBPUSD pair has witnessed a decline below the critical support of 1.1800 in the Tokyo session. The asset has turned sideways amid the unavailability of any potential trigger. However, the risk profile is continuously solid post the release of the US inflation report.
- A breakout of the rising channel has underpinned the Cable bulls.
- Advancing 20-and 50-EMAs add to the upside filters.
- The RSI (14) has shifted into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates more upside ahead.
USD/CHF: The USDCHF fell sharply to 0.9450, reaching the lowest level since mid-August following comments from the chair of the SNB Thomas Jordan. The Swiss Franc became the top performer of the American session with the EURCHF falling a hundred pips to 0.9743, the lowest in a month.
- SNB Chairman says monetary policy is not sufficiently restrictive enough.
- The Swiss Franc soars across the board, and EURCHF falls a hundred pips in minutes.
- USDCHF drops to its lowest in three months under 0.9500.
S&P500: After witnessing multiple days of optimism, markets remain sidelined, mildly offered, during Monday’s Asian session. The reason could be linked to the latest comments from US President Joe Biden and the Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller. Also allowing the bulls to take a breather is the lack of major data/events.
- Market sentiment fades previous optimism ahead of the key G20 updates.
- US President Biden and China’s Xi will meet each other on the sidelines of G20 around 09:30 GMT.
- Fed’s Waller cited the need for more evidence to confirm bearish bias and stayed hopeful of a 50 bps rate hike in December.
- Talks of the Fed’s pivot can keep optimists on the table if risk catalysts offer positive surprises.
GOLD: Gold price (XAUUSD) consolidates the biggest weekly gains since March 2020 around $1,762 during Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the bright metal prints mild losses inside a one-week-old bullish chart pattern.
- Gold price retreats from three-month high snaps two-month uptrend.
- The cautious mood ahead of the key data/events, and the market’s consolidation amid a light calendar favor XAUUSD pullback.
- Fed’s signals for easy rate hikes keep gold buyers hopeful.
- Risk catalysts are the key for near-term directions, US Retail Sales eyed too.
OIL: WTI remains on the front foot at around $89.00, up for the third consecutive day, as it portrays a bullish channel formation during Monday’s Asian session.
- WTI prints a three-day uptrend inside a bullish chart formation.
- Upbeat oscillators and sustained trading beyond 50-HMA keep buyers hopeful.
- 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level can test buyers ahead of the $90.30 hurdle.
Watch Out This Week
- For starters, on the 16th of November, US retail sales data report will come out. Retail sales in the USA indicate the progression of the overall number of products sold. A higher-than-expected figure should be seen as positive (bullish) for the USD while a lower-than-expected figure should be seen as negative (bearish) for the USD.
- November 17th, the US jobless claim report will come out along with the CPI news, giving vital information about the overall currency value movements. A higher-than-expected figure should be seen as positive (bullish) for the USD, while a lower-than-expected figure should be seen as negative (bearish) for the USD.
- On November 18th, GBP retail sales data report will come out. Retail sales in the UK indicate the progression of the overall number of products sold. A higher-than-expected figure should be seen as positive (bullish) for the GBP while a lower-than-expected figure should be seen as negative (bearish) for the GBP.
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