FundedNext Market Recap (May 13 – May 19)

The world of trading and investing is constantly changing, and staying on top of the latest market trends and data is crucial for making informed decisions. This post analyzes the previous week’s market statistics and their implications for traders and investors. It covers top payouts, trading stats, and instruments, as well as the impact of the global market update on major currency pairs.

Weekly Trading Stats

Top 5 Payouts:

Last week, the highest payouts recorded were $31,713, $27,427, $25,814, $21,110 & $16,171, respectively. These substantial payout amounts demonstrate the volatility of the market and the presence of numerous profitable opportunities for traders. The significant payouts indicate that traders were successful in capitalizing on these opportunities by making astute investment decisions.

Weekly Trading Stats:

During the week, traders received a total payout of $1,203,828, distributed among 710 individuals. This suggests that a considerable number of traders actively engaged in the market, and those who made sound investments were able to achieve substantial profits.

Throughout this period, a total of 231,108 trades were executed, involving a total of 260,052 lots. These figures highlight a notable level of trading activity, indicating a market environment characterized by volatility and movement.

Weekly Trading Instruments:

The top trading pairs during the week were XAUUSD, EURUSD, US30, GBPUSD, & NDX100. These pairs are popular among traders and investors and are known to be volatile, which makes them attractive for investment. The high trading volume of these pairs indicates that they were in demand during the week, and traders were able to make profits by investing in them.

During the week, the GBPUSD, NZDUSD, and EURUSD currency pairs performed well and had winning percentages of 56.73%, 56.35%, and 52.89% respectively. This implies that traders who traded these pairs potentially made notable profits.

On the other hand, the AUDCHF, EURCAD, and CADJPY currency pairs did not perform as well and had losing percentages of 54.69%, 54.47%, and 51.55% respectively. This suggests that traders who invested in these pairs might have experienced losses.

Weekly Trading Stats 1

    || Federal Reserve Walks a Tightrope: Balancing Inflation Fears and Banking Crisis Impact on Interest Rates ||

Global Market Update:

  • In a high-stakes gamble, the US Dollar Index remains uncertain as it navigates the rocky waters of political indecision and economic uncertainty. The current standstill in debt ceiling negotiations, primarily owing to policymakers’ inability to strike a deal, has added a cloud of uncertainty over the Dollar. With President Biden and House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy set to discuss the debt ceiling, market observers are on tenterhooks. Should they manage to extend the debt ceiling, this could trigger a surge in the US Dollar Index, providing a much-needed reprieve for the struggling currency.

  • Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve faces its own set of challenges. On one hand, Chairman Jerome Powell has highlighted rising inflation fears, stirring the pot of market anxiety. On the other, he noted that the recent easing of the banking crisis, resulting in tighter credit standards, has lessened the urgency to hike interest rates. This delicate balancing act between these competing forces has kept the Dollar bulls at bay, and it remains to be seen how the Fed will navigate these complexities. With market expectations for a 0.25% Fed rate hike in June on the rise, all eyes will be on the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and the US Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

  • In a surprising turn of events, the price of gold plunged below the $2,000 mark, hitting a daily low of $1,971.74, in the wake of robust US economic data. The numbers indicated a resilient US economy, continuing to expand even amidst reports hinting at a potential recession. As a result, XAU/USD is currently trading at $1,982.78, marking a loss of 1.07%. This tumble in gold prices is also linked to a bolstered US Dollar, which has been fortified by improvements in business activity in the US. Furthermore, the US Federal Reserve is anticipated to hike rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming May meeting, according to the FedWatch Tool, adding another layer of complexity to the shifting economic landscape.
Weekly Trading Stats 4 1

EUR/USD: US Dollar Soars as PMI Data Beats Expectations; EUR/USD Holds Above Daily Lows

  • The US Dollar experienced a sharp surge across all fronts following the release of the S&P Global PMI, which demonstrated solid growth in private sector output and reached an 11-month high.

  • The rise in US Dollar value caused a downturn for EUR/USD, falling from near 1.1000 to under 1.0950, although it managed to stay above daily lows.

  • Despite the weakening of EUR/USD in the last hour, it remains above the 1.0920/30 area. A consolidation above 1.1000 is necessary to pave the way for future gains.


GBP/USD: GBP/USD Faces Pressure Amid Disappointing UK Data; Fall Lacks Bearish Conviction:

  • The GBP/USD pair experienced selling pressure due to disappointing UK Retail Sales data and mixed UK PMIs, causing a downward push on the GBP. The pair, however, recovered over 40 pips from a three-day low, indicating a lack of bearish conviction.

  • The US Dollar’s initial support drawn from the Federal Reserve’s continued interest rate hike was offset by a decline in US Treasury bond yields and a modest recovery in global risk sentiment, creating headwinds for the safe-haven currency.

  • Despite the mixed fundamental backdrop, the potential for an additional interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) in May contributes to limiting losses for the GBP/USD pair. Market participants are now anticipating the release of the flash US PMI prints, which will influence USD price dynamics and offer short-term trading opportunities.


EUR/JPY: EUR/JPY Stays Pessimistic But Holds Potential for Upside Break:

  • The EUR/JPY pair extends its corrective decline, continuing the pessimistic trend seen during the second half of the week, faltering near the 148.00 hurdle.

  • Despite the ongoing dip, the possibility of further gains in the cross remains. A continuation of the upward momentum could once again challenge the 148.00 level, potentially leading to a revisit to the 2022 peak at 148.40.

  • The pair’s potential for further upside remains favoured as long as it trades above the 200-day SMA, currently at 142.24, suggesting the potential for a positive break.

AUD/USD: AUD/USD Expected to Exhibit Sideways Movement in Near-Term, UOB Group Predicts:

  • Despite a brief sharp rise to 0.6772, AUD/USD is not expected to strengthen further in the next 24 hours and is more likely to trade sideways between 0.6700 and 0.6770, according to UOB Group’s strategists.

  • The outlook for AUD/USD remains mixed following the recent sharp but short-lived swings, leading to no clear direction for the pair.

  • Over the next 1-3 weeks, the pair could potentially trade within a relatively broad range of 0.6620/0.6785, reflecting the current uncertainty and volatility in the market.

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Weekly Trading Stats 5 1

NZD/USD: NZD/USD Tumbles to Five-Week Low, Pressured by Soft Domestic Inflation Figures and Hawkish Fed Stance:

  • The NZD/USD pair continues its heavy selling trend, hitting a five-week low during the first half of the European session, with a combination of factors, including softer domestic consumer inflation figures and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, pressuring the pair.

  • The expectation for the Fed to continue raising interest rates and the dampened risk sentiment bolsters the safe-haven US Dollar, contributing to the downward movement of the NZD/USD pair.

  • The market’s anticipation of further policy tightening by the US central bank is causing worries about economic headwinds from rising borrowing costs, diminishing investors’ appetite for riskier assets and driving flows away from the risk-sensitive Kiwi.

GOLD:

Gold Price Breaks Below $2,000 Mark Amid USD Index Recovery and Hawkish Fed Outlook:

  • Gold price (XAU/USD) has witnessed a significant drop below the psychological support level of $2,000, primarily driven by a recovery in the US Dollar Index (DXY) and continuous advocacy by Federal Reserve policymakers for more rate hikes.

  • Weekly jobless claims data, indicating an easing labor market with an increase to 245K, has contributed to the investors’ shift towards the US Dollar, impacting the gold price negatively.

  • The future direction of gold prices largely depends on the release of preliminary US S&P PMI data and the expected 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in May. If the US economy shows further signs of slowdown, the chances of additional rate hikes beyond May could diminish, possibly affecting gold price dynamics.


SILVER:

Silver Price Retreats Amid Upbeat US Data But Retains Upward Momentum:

  • The price of Silver (XAG/USD) has retracted after reaching a daily high of $25.37 due to a rise in US Treasury bond yields following optimistic US economic data.

  • Despite recent losses, the upward trend for XAG/USD persists, holding above a critical support level marked by the April 19 low and the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $25.58/65.

  • Potential for future movements includes a rally towards the Year-To-Date (YTD) high of $26.08 if the April 20 high of $25.49 is surpassed, while a sustained decline in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) could see prices testing the $24.00 mark.


OIL:

Oil Price Struggles to Hold $77.00 Mark Amid Global Slowdown Fears and Central Bank Rate Hike Cycles:

  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices are struggling to maintain support at $77.00 due to increasing concerns about a global economic slowdown and an anticipated new rate hike cycle from global central banks aimed at curbing persistent inflation.

  • Despite upbeat GDP numbers from China signaling economic recovery and potential increased oil demand, investors’ concerns about a global recession and tightened monetary policies continue to exert pressure on oil prices.

  • Expectations of further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England add to the downward pressure on oil prices. The possibility of significant declines in manufacturing activities due to these conservative monetary policies further fuels fears of a global recession.

Watch Out This Week

  • On 23rd May, the US PMI report will come out. A figure that is higher than anticipated should be viewed as positive (bullish) for the USD, while a figure that is lower than anticipated should be viewed as unfavorable (bearish).

  • On 24th May, the GBP inflation report will have a significant impact on British bond and stock markets. A higher than expected figure should be seen as positive (Bullish) for the GBP while a lower than expected figure should be seen as negative (bearish) for the GBP.

  • It is important to pay attention to the continuous jobless report on 25th May as it may have significant impacts on major currencies. A higher than expected figure should be seen as negative (bearish) for the USD while a lower than expected figure should be seen as positive (bullish) for the USD.
Michael Scott
Michael Scott

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