In this article, we are delving into the dynamic world of trading and investing, highlighting the importance of staying updated on current market trends and data to make informed decisions. We analyzed the market statistics of the previous week, exploring their relevance for traders and investors.
The article covers various aspects such as notable earnings, trading statistics, and instruments. Additionally, it considers the impact of the global market update on major currency pairs.
Top 5 Payouts:
During the previous week, the top 5 payouts were;
- $42,106 – 380K account size (Scaled Up) – 11.08% Growth
- $35,496 – 300K account size 11.84% Growth
- $27,451 – 200K account size 13.72% Growth
- $22,162 – 200K account size 11.08% Growth
- $18,620 – 150K account size (Scaled Up) – 12.42% Growth
These substantial payout figures exemplify the market’s volatility and the existence of multiple lucrative prospects for traders. The significant payouts serve as evidence that traders achieved success by capitalizing on these opportunities through prudent investment choices.
Weekly Trading Stats:
Last week, traders collectively received a payout totaling $1,303,134; which was distributed among 1,103 individuals. This indicates significant participation of traders in the market, with those who made wise investment decisions reaping substantial profits.
During this timeframe, a total of 726,960 trades were executed, involving a cumulative sum of 454,543 lots. These numbers emphasize the considerable level of trading activity, signifying a market environment characterized by volatility and dynamic movement.
Weekly Trading Instruments:
The most prominent trading pairs observed throughout the week encompassed XAUUSD, EURUSD, NDX100, GBPUSD, and US30. These pairs hold popularity among traders and investors, known for their volatility which adds to their investment appeal. The substantial trading volume associated with these pairs indicates their high demand throughout the week, presenting traders with profit-making opportunities.
Among all the currency pairs, USDCHF, USDJPY & EURUSD demonstrated good performance, boasting winning percentages of 58.29%, 56.96%, and 56.86% respectively. This suggests that traders who engaged in these pairs potentially achieved notable profits.
Conversely, the USDCAD, AUDCHF, and EURCAD currency pairs did not exhibit favorable performance, reflecting losing percentages of 51.98%, 49.68%, and 48.63% respectively. This implies that traders who invested in these pairs might have encountered losses.
|| Golden Ascent: Commerzbank Predicts Gold Soaring to $2,000 by Year’s End as US Rate Hike Cycle Looms! ||
Global Market Update:
- Commerzbank analysts have examined the outlook for the gold price, noting that it has stabilized above the $1,900 mark. They suggest that market participants have accepted the prolonged timeline for the interest rate reversal.
While the price may remain relatively steady in the near term, it is anticipated to regain strength as the apex of the US rate hike cycle becomes clearer. Consequently, Commerzbank expects the gold price to reach $2,000 by the end of the year.
- Gold price surged to session highs as the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data fell short of expectations. The headline figure showed a contraction compared to the previous month, accompanied by significant downward revisions.
However, the silver lining came in the form of a 0.1% decrease in the Unemployment Rate, adding to the string of positive economic indicators in the US. Despite the mixed data, the knee-jerk reaction pushed the gold price to reach a high of $1,928.40c after hitting a low of $1,920. With the dust settling, bearish sentiment is starting to take hold in the market.
- As the dust settles following the market reaction to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, gold bears are making their presence known. The initial rally in the gold price, driven by the disappointing NFP figures, seems to have reached its peak. Traders are now paying attention to the daily bearish trendline, which is exerting downward pressure on the precious metal.
While the NFP outcome showcased mixed results, including a contraction in the headline figure but a decrease in the Unemployment Rate, market sentiment is leaning towards a more cautious outlook for gold. The gold price briefly soared to $1,928.40c, starting from a low of $1,920, before succumbing to bearish forces.
EUR/USD: EUR/USD Surges to One-Week Highs as Weaker US Dollar Fuels Momentum
- Weaker US Dollar: The US dollar experiences a broad decline after the release of disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, providing support for the EUR/USD pair to rise above 1.0960 and reach one-week highs.
- Bullish Momentum Intact: Following a breakthrough above the key level of 1.0930, the EUR/USD pair maintains its bullish momentum, holding onto weekly gains and staying above the 20-week Simple Moving Average.
- Focus on US Inflation Data: In the upcoming week, market attention will shift towards the US as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) are set to be released. These inflation figures will be crucial ahead of the next FOMC meeting, scheduled for July 25-26.
GBP/USD: GBP/USD Surges Past 1.2800 as Soft US NFP Data Puts Pressure on the US Dollar:
- Soft US NFP Figures: Weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, showing the addition of just 209K jobs in June (below estimates of 225K), led to a rally in GBP/USD as it surged to 1.2845, gaining 0.83%.
- US Dollar Weakness: The soft labor data weighed on the US Dollar across the board, causing a drop in the US Dollar Index (DXY) by 0.83%, providing tailwinds for GBP/USD.
- BoE Rate Hike Expectations: Despite concerns about a possible recession scenario, market participants continue to anticipate several more rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE), with expectations potentially reaching as high as 6%, supporting the bullish momentum in GBP/USD.
EUR/JPY: EUR/JPY Slides Towards 156.00 Amid Concerns over German Industrial Production and Japan Meddling Woes:
- Downbeat German Industrial Production: EUR/JPY experiences a four-day losing streak and heads towards the first weekly loss in four as German Industrial Production for May disappoints, contracting by 0.2% MoM instead of showing expected growth.
- Japan Meddling Concerns: Fears of Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Japanese government intervention to defend the Yen (JPY) rise, impacting EUR/JPY. This, combined with recent hawkish comments from ECB’s Lagarde and Japan’s firmer wage growth data, influences the cross-currency pair’s downward trajectory.
- Technical Outlook: EUR/JPY faces a potential decline towards the 155.35-30 support confluence, including the 21-day moving average (DMA) and previous tops observed on June 18-20, following a daily close below the resistance line around 157.05. Market participants await ECB President Lagarde’s speech and monitor risk catalysts for further direction.
AUD/USD: AUD/USD Recovery Hinges on Break of 0.6700 and US Employment Data:
- Recovery from Weekly Low: AUD/USD extends its rebound from a four-month-old support line, marking the first joyous day in three sessions as it consolidates weekly losses.
- Key DMAs and Bearish Signals: The 100-day moving average (DMA) and 200-DMA present challenges for Aussie buyers, while bearish signals from the MACD indicator add to the cautious sentiment.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Chinese Headlines: The AUD/USD pair is likely to remain range-bound, with today’s US NFP data and developments in China playing a crucial role in determining market direction.
NZD/USD: NZD/USD Clings to Gains but Lacks Conviction Ahead of US NFP:
- Subdued USD Demand Supports NZD/USD: NZD/USD sees some positive traction and gains support from a weakened US Dollar (USD) as uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike path persists.
- Divergent Fed-RBNZ Policy Outlook: The contrasting monetary policy outlook between the Fed and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) could provide support to the pair, despite looming recession risks.
- Caution Ahead of US NFP: Traders remain on the sidelines, awaiting the release of the key US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which will influence the Fed’s near-term policy outlook and impact the NZD/USD pair.
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Consolidates Above $1,900, Awaits Fresh Impetus from US NFP:
- Consolidation Above $1,900: Gold price remains in a narrow trading range above the weekly low, struggling to capitalize on a modest bounce from the $1,900 mark. The XAU/USD pair hovers around $1,910, showing vulnerability amid a two-month downtrend from the May all-time high.
- Headwinds from Hawkish Fed Expectations: Expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) act as a headwind for the non-yielding Gold price. Upbeat data, including strong ADP employment figures and a rise in the ISM Services PMI, reinforce expectations of tightening monetary policy.
- Technical Outlook: Immediate support is seen near the overnight swing low of around $1,900, followed by the $1,893-$1,892 region. A break below could expose the multi-month low at $1,865-$1,864. On the upside, hurdles lie at $1,918-$1,919 and $1,925-$1,926, with a sustained strength potentially leading to a short-covering rally towards the $2,000 psychological level and beyond.
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Consolidates Around $22.70, Downside Favored Ahead of US NFP:
- Consolidation around $22.70: Silver price (XAG/USD) shows indecisiveness as it oscillates around the $22.70 level, with investors awaiting the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for further guidance.
- USD Index Retreats: The US Dollar Index (DXY) has reversed its gains from the upbeat US ADP Employment report, signaling a weaker US dollar.
- Technical Outlook: Despite finding support near the lower portion of the Rising Channel pattern, silver struggles to exhibit a meaningful recovery. The failure to sustain above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $23.00 suggests a bearish long-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) indicates further weakness ahead.
WTI Mildly Offered Near $72.00 Amid Mixed Oil Market News and Economic Fears:
- Mixed Catalysts Weigh on WTI: WTI crude oil experiences mild losses as mixed market catalysts contribute to a cautious mood. Risk-off sentiment, recession fears, and tensions between the US and China weigh on oil prices.
- Weekly EIA Inventories: The US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly oil inventories show a lesser draw compared to previous readings, providing hope for oil bears.
- Saudi Arabia’s Price Hike and Iran’s Fuel Seizure: Saudi Arabia and Russia announce additional oil production cuts, while Saudi Arabia raises its official selling prices (OSP) for August-loading Arab Light to Asia.
However, Iran’s seizure of a tanker holding smuggled fuel adds to geopolitical tensions in the region.
Watch Out This Week
- On 12th July, the United States PMI report will come out. A figure that is higher than anticipated should be viewed as positive (bullish) for the USD, while a figure that is lower than anticipated should be viewed as unfavorable (bearish).
- On 13th July, the United States Initial Jobless Claims report will significantly impact British bond and stock markets. A higher-than-expected figure should be seen as negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower-than-expected figure should be seen as positive (Bullish) for the USD
- It is essential to pay attention to the United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment report on the 14th of July as it may have significant impacts on major currencies. A higher-than-expected figure should be seen as Positive (bullish) for the USD while a lower-than-expected figure should be seen as negative (bearish) for the USD.